Microsoft's New Coke?

Windows XP is scheduled to disappear from store shelves in a few months, making Microsoft's new OS formulation the only game in town.  Lots of people aren't happy with the new taste.

You dont need a PR clipping service or complicated social media tracking tool to sense the outrage.  One online petition (Save XP) collected more than 100,000 signatures.  Lots of expert reviewers weren't happy with Vista when it first launched, and an uneven and overly complicated retail/upgrade program left lots of consumers in the cold (various versions, matrices of incompatibilities with accessory drivers, etc.).

Not surprisingly, a vocal group of users have declared their undying allegiance to the old formula, and vow to stick with XP until such time that Microsoft comes up with another operating system that better embodies the functionality and ease-of-use they associate with their current OS.

Is Vista New Coke, all over again?

No, it isn't, for one very solid reason: there's no turning back.  Vista is the future, and there's no way that Microsoft is going to entertain the idea of preserving an island -- even a reasonably large one -- of users reliant on an outdated OS.  Software developers and retailers will desert them (and did so many months ago), in search of serving the much larger audience of Vista users instead.

"You can’t go back to old technology," as Thomas Wolfe sorta said.

But the parallels to the New Coke debacle might be relevant, more from a perspective of understanding brands and how they intersect with consumer behavior.

First off, I have to imagine that the gurus at Microsoft were surprised by public reaction to Vista. This came after exhaustive research -- consumer surveys, focus groups, and all the other techniques used to map and predict both thoughts and likely behaviors -- just the same way probably that Coke investigated its new concoction.  Vista was built to meet or exceed what were believed to be the most important performance (i.e. taste)expectations.

So was the Edsel.

I know, I know, Vista is no Edsel, and it's not really New Coke, either.  But the designers sure got it wrong, just like their predecessors did.

Vista has a bunch of bells in whistles in it that solve problems few consumers knew they had; it answers questions nobody was asking.  As such, it's a great example of research that confuses stated intentions and technology possibilities with required needs and technological necessities.

Second, even I was shocked that the consumer marketing was so lame.

I don't quite understand why Microsoft though that the newness of Vista would be the driving motivator for consumer adoption, any more than the Coke folks felt it was the trigger to reinvigorate its consumers.  New is an associative brand benefit that has little relevance to consumer experience; it's inwardly-focused back at the business, almost implicitly demanding a rest-of-the-sentence for consumers that says "new...because..."

The need to launch new products for companies to keep the sales pipeline primed is not a motivator for buyers.  Yet that's exactly how Vista came across.

Just like Coke drinkers, there had been no outcry from unhappy XP customers demanding an improvement.  Then, Microsoft spent many millions without ever coming up with simple, memorable, and compelling reasons why people should care about Vista.  No question asked, and no real answer given, and voila. 

No demand.

Third, here are, over a year later, and there's still been no deviation from the branding plans...no subsequent proof points or rationale for converting the unconverted.  The branding might be exquisitely on-target and integrated, but it hasn't been made flexible and integrated with the information needs of the consuming public.

A year of happy users finding reasons to adore Vista, and yet we don't know a single thing about them.  Like Coke, Microsoft is less interested in how people perceive and experience its brand, and more focused on what it likes to say and show about it.

Like Yogi Berra said, "This is like deju vu, all over again."

Consumers will come to terms with Vista, especially once it’s the only game in town for PC users.  New users will adopt the OS.  Kids who grow up with it won't know, or remember, an alternative.  And lots and lots of people will never really think about Vista any more than they thought about XP, which is an altogether different problem.

As a matter of fact, the marketplace will chug along, and everything will settle.  Just in time for Microsoft to upend it with the next OS improvement.

Let's toast to learning the mistakes of the past.  With New Coke.

Comments

[Shane]

Speaking as an IT Director for a consulting services firm, I would bet my next paycheck that Vista adoption within corporate settings is lacking way behind consumer adoption. XP works and users are familiar with it and Vista is, for lack of a better description, a pig.

To me, the corporate adoption issue is tied directly to the many costs involved - software licensing, hardware upgrades, training, support. Granted, one could argue that any OS upgrade would result in similar costs. However, the heavy-handedness of Vista in terms of DRM, Content Protection, User Account Control coupled with performance issues and bugs in the RTM version placed an increased strain on the IT function to manage. And, quite frankly, many - including mine - are choosing not to.

[Tom Asacker]

Great analysis. And IMHO, many Apple fence sitters will now jump on over.